HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE These are paper-trading portfolios. No client money is invested, no orders are routed to any venue, and no result shown here was achieved with real capital. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and do not reflect the effect of real order flow on price.
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Political Trades Tracker

P05retiredhigh riskrulebook v1.0.0explain and flag only
This portfolio is retired. It is preserved unedited, it appears in every aggregate statistic on this site, and it was never deleted. It never traded: it was withdrawn before launch, so it has no results to report and contributes nothing numerically. It is published because a reader who cannot see what was withdrawn cannot judge what remains. Withdrawn before launch. The portfolio depends on congressional financial disclosure data, and 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c) makes it unlawful to use those reports for any commercial purpose other than by news and communications media for dissemination to the general public. Every existing tracker relies on that exception. Whether this site sits inside it is a question for counsel, and the operator has decided not to obtain that advice. Rather than operate on an assumption, the portfolio is retired.

Publish, and mechanically mirror, the stock purchases that US federal legislators disclose under the STOCK Act. The point is transparency: to show what a portfolio built only from public disclosure would actually have done, including the cost of the disclosure delay.

Follow Political Trades Tracker's trades →Decisions post to the channel when they're made — before settlement, refusals included.

Track record

No track record has begun.

This portfolio has not traded. Figures will appear only once a licensed price feed is connected and the first real decision cycle has run — and from that point they are permanent and unedited.

Starting capital
$100,000own work — never restated
Benchmarks
SPY · RSP, QQQ
Mandate hash
dd69a39b6d8ff18916f8e206609f6421696e41dbec7469e174493cfa0ea74667

What the AI is allowed to do

This portfolio's AI explains and flags. It makes no trade proposals at all — the maximum is zero, enforced by the mandate validator. Position selection is fully mechanical.

It may propose

EXPLAIN · FLAG_DATA_ANOMALY

At most 0 proposals per run, each carrying a direction, a conviction from 1 to 5, a rationale, and references to the facts it used.

It cannot
  • set a price
  • set a quantity or share count
  • set a weight or position size
  • set or move a risk limit
  • execute anything

Model tier fast · prompt version P05-v1. Any change to either is recorded as a MODEL_CHANGE event in the audit chain — without it the record would be a chimera of two systems presented as one.

Enforced limits

Every limit below names the code path that enforces it. This is not decoration: a limit that is published but never fires is worse than no limit, because a reader has no way to tell the difference. A test walks every mandate, drives the engine into the state each declared control claims to protect against, and fails the build if nothing stops it.

exposure
LimitValueEnforced by
Maximum gross exposure100.0%gate 2 — size_order
Maximum single sector40.0%gate 2 — size_order
permissions
LimitValueEnforced by
Shortingprohibitedgate 1 — proposal validation
Derivativesprohibitedgate 1 — proposal validation
Marginprohibitedgate 1 — proposal validation
sizing
LimitValueEnforced by
Maximum positions40gate 2 — size_order
Minimum new position1.0%gate 2 — size_order
Maximum order as % of ADV0.5%gate 2 — size_order
loss limits
LimitValueEnforced by
Single-day loss alert5.0%gate 3 — alert
data integrity
LimitValueEnforced by
Stale-data halt96 hoursgate 3 — HALT_STALE_DATA
drawdown ladder
LimitValueEnforced by
At −15.0% drawdownalert, publish_commentarygate 3 — drawdown ladder
At −25.0% drawdownalert, scale_new_position_size:0.5gate 3 — drawdown ladder
At −35.0% drawdownalert, mandatory_deep_review, pause_new_positions_days:15gate 3 — drawdown ladder
At −55.0% drawdowngraveyard_reviewgate 3 — drawdown ladder
turnover
LimitValueEnforced by
Max trades per week20entry block — PAUSE_TURNOVER_CAP_REACHED (never blocks an exit)
Min holding period days5entry block — PAUSE_TURNOVER_CAP_REACHED (never blocks an exit)
circuit breakers
LimitValueEnforced by
Halt trading if price gap unexplained pct25gate 3 — circuit breaker
Halt trading if parse error rate above pct20gate 3 — circuit breaker
Halt trading if ticker resolution rate below pct80gate 3 — circuit breaker
Halt trading if factpack hash mismatchtruegate 3 — circuit breaker

Disclosures specific to this portfolio

These render on the page itself rather than in a footer, because without them the numbers actively mislead.

  • Disclosed transaction amounts are RANGES, not exact figures. 65% of all filings fall in the single bucket $1,001-$15,000. Position sizes here are equal-weighted and are NOT derived from disclosed amounts.
  • Measured median disclosure lag: House 23.5 days, Senate 29.0 days. Statutory maximum 45 days. Worst observed 119 days.
  • Approximately 10-13% of House filings and 14% of Senate filings are scanned images and are not machine-readable. They are excluded and the exclusion count is published daily.
  • Mutual funds, ETFs in excepted investment funds, the Thrift Savings Plan, real property and inherited assets are exempt from disclosure and are therefore invisible here.
  • Inclusion of a legislator is not a claim of wrongdoing. Data is reproduced from public filings for transparency purposes.

Execution

Cost profile
zero_commission_us
Fill convention
vwap_window
Decision → order latency
60s
VWAP window
15 minutes

Fills are struck on a VWAP window that begins strictly after the decision timestamp plus a latency delay. No fill can use information from the bar in which the decision was made, so look-ahead is arithmetically impossible rather than merely avoided.

Philosophy

This is NOT copy trading. The measured median lag from trade to filing is 24-29 days (House 23.5 median, Senate 29.0 median, statutory max 45). By the time a filing is public, it is public to everyone simultaneously and the large trackers publish within hours. Any information advantage is gone. What remains is a slow thematic tilt toward what legislators were buying a month ago. The portfolio is honest about being that.

Review schedule

JobCronTimezoneMakes a decision
filing ingest30 9 * * MON-FRIAmerica/New_Yorkno
signal run0 17 * * MON-FRIAmerica/New_Yorkyes
weekly review0 12 * * SUNAmerica/New_Yorkyes

Published on a fixed, regular schedule. Never event-triggered — no "market is crashing, sell now" alerts, deliberately.

Machine-readable mandate: config/portfolios/P05_political_trades_tracker.yaml · human rulebook: docs/portfolios/P05_political_trades_tracker.md · effective from 2026-09-01 · payload b618c290568f

Follow the record.Every decision, fill and refusal, as it is published — including the ones that lose money.Join on Telegram →

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